2/10/14: Chardy to beat Anderson (Odds 3.26): WIN
2/10/14 : Halep to beat Petkovic: WIN
1/10/14 : Granollers to beat St.Johnson: LOSS
30/9/14 : Gulbis to beat Fognini: WIN
30/9/14 : Karlovic to beat Gojowczyk: LOSS
29/9/14 : Davis to beat Xu: WIN
29/9/14 : Istomin to beat Daniel: WIN
28/9/14 : Vinci to beat Shvedova: WIN
27/9/14 : Robredo to beat Giraldo: WIN
26/9/14 : Troicki to beat Giraldo: LOSS
Yes, you read it correctly!! I’m going for the underdog without the
handicap on the Chardy match..
One of the reasons why I decided to stop the handicap bets is because
it was only rarely that the handicap came into play. By my own statistical
analysis, if we had bet on the underdog to win instead of giving
the handicap, we would have won more money. Members who have been with me
for 12 months or more will remember that I threatened to do this before
and then reverted to the handicap system again. But this time, I won’t!!
This is a high risk strategy without a doubt, but the potential returns are
also very high..
Note: Chardy won, giving us an 11.3% return on a 5% stake
Now on to a mail from a member last night about staking – it read:
“Only thing I do different Patrick (in September) is stake 5% over 1.55 and 10% under and
my £1500 bank is £24 up on the month – and I missed one winner because
I forgot about the 9pm tip time. So basically stood still this month
but that’s my new bank 50% up since July having more than doubled
my previous bank between the start of the year and the end of June.
Pretty god damn good if you ask me!”
Thanks to Andrew for sending that in. Andrew was able to turn a difficult
September into profitable with his own unique staking plan. I applied it
to a couple of months earlier in the year and it certainly is a very
good strategy. Tips under 1.55 have over 80% strike rate with a strike
rate of about 70% on the rest. WTA strike rate is higher that ATP by
about 10% too – so you might also use that to your advantage if you wish.
On the months I tested the staking strategy above, it worked out
significantly better that using flat 5% stakes.
One more thing while I’m on the subject!! We have never had more than
4 losses in a row in 2014. In fact, 4 losses in a row happened only once
in 2014. Using 10% stakes on all bets in 2014 would have been a very good
strategy. You would have been briefly in the red in
January using 10% stakes, but after that it would have been green,
I will have more on another staking plan in the next couple of days
called “MathsBooster” – Reversion to the Mean Staking Plan. I’ll
send out as soon as it’s ready…
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