IN-DEPTH TRADING: KITZBUHEL FINAL – MONACO V GRANOLLERS

In the last few days there have been a few finals that proved very profitable if you had a good trading strategy in place. I have listed below one of these matches and given an in-depth look into how one could have traded these markets.

As a rule of thumb, ‘DELAYING AND TRADING’ is applicable everywhere!

1st Match:  KITZBUHEL FINAL – MONACO V GRANOLLERS

My tip: Back [email protected], [email protected]

End Result: Granollers won 0-6, 7-6 (3), 6-4

The first set score indicates that our strategy worked easily. However, let’s look a closer look in relation to the odds here.

The starting odds on Monaco was around 1.6. If you are delaying and trading it’s likely you may have got slightly lower odds as Monaco was serving first. He indeed held on to his first service game which would mean you could get an odds of 1.5 at least. So let’s assume you got an odds of 1.5. Please remember if you’ve taken 1.5, it means for the strategy to work, your target is now 1.2 lay instead of 1.3 as you’ve taken lower backing odds. Also remember this was not a BH tip, hence let’s assume you put 10 units as the stake.

So in summary, you’ve backed Monaco @1.5 for 10 units. Tip wise, if you’re laying @1.2 you could achieve a profit of 2.5 units.

Calculation:

Backed [email protected] to get 5 profit, Laid [email protected] (liability of 2.5) :

Difference in stake 12.5 – 10 = 2.5 (guaranteed profit!)

Monaco starting well in this match meant your 1.2 price would easily get matched. However, the immediate objective is now to give a lay price in advance. This is something that most amateur traders miss! Their natural tendency is to wait which is wrong. You should hence give a very low lay price that you think might get matched. The back price on Monaco after the first set was around 1.1 in this match. If you had given 1.1 as the lay price in advance you can cancel it and go slightly lower, maybe around 1.06 or 1.07. Remember, as always, when you are laying with your profit that you’ve achieved, go for the lowest possible price you can get! Obviously don’t go for a 1.01 or 1.02 straight away as that’s unlikely to get matched straight after the first set.

Let’s assume you gave a lay price of 1.07 just before the first set finished.  You can lay a stake of slightly more than 30 units here as your profit is already 2.5 units. (Laying for 30 units would precisely cost you 2.1 stake).

For the time being let’s assume you’ve laid for 10 units which has a liability of 0.70 units. Meaning, out of your 2.5 profit, 0.7 is being recycled for the current trade which is a further lay of Monaco @1.07. This means whatever happens now, your guaranteed profit is 1.8 units! If Monaco loses, you get an extra 10. If he wins the second set easily as well, you get a slightly reduced profit of 1.8 units. Do remember by the way that our 2.5 units initially was 25 % of our stake of 10 units!

Our 1.07 lay price would have got matched in the 4th game of the second set when Monaco had 2 break points. This would mean after Granollers eventually held on, our profit of 2.5 would keep on rising especially after he broke Monaco later. However, while serving for the second set Monaco broke him back and this went to a tie-break.

At this stage, it is worth considering laying at a lower lay price again, something like 1.02 or 1.03. I normally give these prices as soon as the tie-break starts so as not to avoid disappointment later. If indeed they get matched and Granollers comes back to win, they prove to be extremely valuable. Hence, again, I advice to give the lay prices in advance.

Ofcourse, in the match, Granollers dominated the tie-break which meant our 1.07 lay price definitely worked in our favour.

Moving on to the third set now, Granollers storms to a 4-0 lead making his own price go to around 1.1. At this stage we can trade out a profit of around 20 units and do exactly what we did to Monaco and that is to lay him at a lower price. Do note, that while laying, have an overall look at the player. In this match, Monaco looked completely outclassed in the early periods of the 3rd set. So you would think there is no chance for him which may have easily been the case. However, as a trader, you are BIASING a player at the time which you shouldn’t do. Your whole point is to deal in numbers and recycle the money in the best way you possibly can. Hence, if you have a chance of trading out a 10unit stake in the third set, take it and lay on the current favourite. This is a risk that you must take as the liabilities are too low at these stages of the match..

If indeed you laid [email protected] for 20 more, this would mean, your rounded up profit on his side would be at least 10 and in Monaco’s side it could be upto 20. Either way, you have already increased your profit by more than 100% so what’s there to lose?

Again, in reality, this match almost turned out to be a classic comeback as Monaco fought back to make this 5-4 from 5-2 down and more importantly he was on serve at that point. He couldn’t hold on and eventually lost to the better player.

The main lesson in this match is , do not assume a player winning easily anytime! After all its a sport and anything can happen! Also it’s worth noting that one of the main reasons for us reaping a profit here is due to the fact that our initial 10 unit stake was on the right player which was Monaco. Had he lost the first set, strategies would have to be different!So basically, getting the right player early on can prove incredibly profitable by the end of the match. Recycling profits is one of the great benefits of Betfair!

The article for the next match would be between Del Potro and Isner for the CITI OPEN ATP Final!

Thanks for reading,

Patrick.

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