INCLINING TOWARDS FAVOURITES FOR LONG TERM PROFITS
This article will give you an insight into the reason why siding favourites is a better strategy for long term profits.
Consider the following match with prices shown on Betfair:
Eugenie Bouchard (1.85) vs Carla Suarez Navarro (2.16)
Assuming, the tip from TTL is as follows:
Back Bouchard @ 1.85, Lay @ 1.4
The Greened out profit here is approximately 3.2 units as we can see from the following image in the Green Box. P/L if Win and P/L if Lose are equalised (as much as possible):
Now let’s presume here that Bouchard is on a roll straight away and is leading 2-0, serving now in the third game with a 30-0 lead. Also, you happened to check the serve stats for Navarro and it is a terrible 35% ‘first serve in’ with 2 double faults already. So basically, everything looking good if you have backed Bouchard.
The question now is, wouldn’t you want to have more money on Bouchard’s side here rather than equalising your profits at 3.2 units?
The answer is : THIS IS WHERE YOUR INTUITION AND KNOWLEDGE MUST COME INTO PLAY!
I always encourage guaranteeing a profit first (equalising), especially for new traders. But once you get the hang of it, you can always experiment a bit more and try new strategies. So here’s one strategy that you might adopt.
3.2 units isn’t bad at all as it’s 32% of our 10 unit stake. But if we lay slightly lower stakes on Bouchard @1.4 we can indeed fetch a bit more profit.
Before we do that, let’s look into that image on the top one more time and concentrate on the Blue and Red boxes. The Blue box is our Lay Stake and the Red one is our LIABILITY. Always remember that our LIABILITY is our RISK!
As I mentioned earlier, if we reduce our BLUE BOX Lay stake, it also means our Liability is being reduced. Essentially what you are doing is reducing the amount of money you are betting against Bouchard (after all laying is to BET AGAINST). If you do this, always make sure the Smart bets option is unticked so that the back and lay stakes aren’t linked.
So let’s reduce our BLUE BOX STAKE now from 13.21 units by 3 units to 10.21. Here’s the result:
As we can see, both our results (GREEN AND BLACK BOXES) are still in profits but one has slightly more than our Guaranteed Greened out profit than before. This one has 4.42 units, a 37% further increase from our 3.2 units profit (or an increase of 12% from out initial 10 quid stake).
A reminder again, such strategies work in the favourites side more often especially those with odds of 1.5 or less. However, always watch how the match starts before jumping on board and sailing in the wrong direction!
Bear in mind that our initial Green out was still a decent 3.2 units and that is our priority here – to have a profit. But in our new strategy, we’ve still managed a profit, but, shifting towards the favourite is really the big difference.
The downside of such a strategy is that in the worst case scenario the end profit is only a mere 0.21 units. After all, was it really worth laying less on the favourite? This is exactly why your reason/intuition must be spot on before you adopt this kind of technique.
When trading matches with HEAVY stakes, inclining towards favourites has definitely increased my overall profitability.
As always, remember, your intuition/knowledge is the most vital step to implementing such a strategy.
Thanks for reading!