Tennis Trading Tips Davis cup and WTA 02.02.13

Todays Matches

Predictions for few matches including davis cup and Open de Suez WTA event.

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Best match likely:

Mladenovic vs Barthel:

Barthel odds are 1.48 on betfair. I predict that will definitely go
up! It is very possible that Mladenovic may win in 2 sets as well as
her serve and overall game has been great so far. Barthel is a great
server so if her serve works well this could go in her favour but I
still expect the odds to shoot up maybe atleast till the 1.9 range!
Hence lay her at the start!

Application: Lay barthel at 1.48 for 20 units (Liability: around 10),
back her at 1.9 for around 15.5 units. Profit : approximately 4.5
units.

Note: You can lay this match heavy if you wish as I feel strongly this
match may have a bit of everything! Safe method is to lay not too much
at the start. Wait for a few games to see how Mladenovic plays. But
nevertheless risk atleast 20 units at the start against barthel as
that is definitely worth the risk!

Errani vs Bertens:

Bertens a year or two ago I remember, won her first title as a WILDCARD
which was an incredible feat for anyone to achieve. I have been very
fond of her since, she is a very calm player which I admire about her.
A great server and she demolished Safarova yesterday, a rather huge
shock!

Errani for me however should win this. She’s a hardcourt expert and
knows how to handle players. She’s the female Italian avatar of Andy
Murray for me. Grinds out every point, squeezes out every bit of
energy from the opponent. For me hence, this match will go in errani’s
favour!

Safest strategy: My safest strategy here is to wait till the first
set. There is an element of doubt how errani will return bertens’
serves. If she doesn’t return well, the first set will go to kiki
bertens. Hence if errani wins the first set, back her heavy, if she
loses the first set, lay bertens for a decent amount.

Application:

If errani wins the first set:

Odds likely to go from 1.48 to 1.2 range. Back 200 at 1.2 and lay at 1.1.

200 at 1.2 (liab: 200), lay at 1.1 for 218, profit approximately 18 units!

If errani loses the first set. Range of bertens’ odds maybe in the 1.6
to 1.7 range. Assuming it to be 1.65, do the following:

Lay bertens at 1.65 for 55 units, liability 35 units. back her at 2
for 45 units.

Profit approximately: 10 units!

Davis cup predictions doubles matches:

Best tip for me is the italian pair bolleli/lorenzi to beat metkic/pavic.

The other one is Benneteau/llodra (France) to beat Sela/Elrich
(Israel). This one could be more tight but I expect france to sneak
past israel.

The above matches are not liquid at all as all doubles are never
liquid to trade properly on betfair. Still you can give it a go with
precaution (dont risk too much!).

You can apply the back heavy strategy for both these matches and lay
them at a low price you think it might reach. If you are not sure of
the desired odds you want, simply trade out the profit. Trade out if
the loss is too much or if the match looks unpredictable!

Good luck and enjoy!

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