Sela vs Hajek:
1.45 back odds on Sela looks like an absolute free money for me. That
price should be much lower in the 1.25 range. Hence back heavy at 1.45
lay at 1.2 (or lower as the price will get lower)!
Hanescu vs Olaso:
Olaso surprised me yesterday beating one of the former tough players
Dmitri Tursunov in the qualifying. He played and especially served
pretty decent. This could be a hard one to call. But on paper Hanescu
should win and hence his odds as 1.4 on betfair is right.
I expect the odds on Hanescu to go down at some stage but don’t apply
the back heavy strategy here. Rather try with 20-30 units!
Monfils vs Bemelmans:
This again maybe a tough one to call as Monfils is recovering after
injuries nowadays. But being his home tournament it could go in his
favour in 2 sets. Don’t back heavy again, go for safer stakes and
profit targets here. Odds on him are 1.2 so no point in backing heavy
especially if he is returning after injuries! Laying Monfils at the
start may not be a bad idea so and backing him at a 1.35 price might
Stakovsky vs Mathieu:
I’ve always liked Mathieu. He will play well for me against Stakovsky
who is not an easy player to beat.Best strategy here is to wait out
the first set. If Stakovsky wins lay him immediately! Odds on Mathieu
are 1.45. That sounds a bit low for me. Maybe, it should be in the
1.5-1.6 range! Hence laying Mathieu at the start or scalping against
his serve may be a less risky strategy. Do not lay Mathieu heavy at
any point in this match keeping in mind he will play well on home
VTR Open Chile:
2 Matches I think are good are the following:
Berlocq to beat Kuznetsov
Montanes to beat Massu
Both are favourites hence back heavy /lay low strategy may very well work!
Good luck laddies!