You have backed a player and he seems to have injury issues towards the end of the first set. What do you do?
Suppose the tip is on Nadal to be backed @1.8 and laid at 1.2 against Murray.
Assuming here’s what happened:
Rafa has broken Murray first. He has held on to his remaining serves. Now he’s about to serve for the first set at 5-4. The odds are around 1.25 which hasn’t quiet hit our target of 1.2 but you are hoping that to be fulfilled after he wins the first set. However, here’s what happens. Nadal injures his ankle in the previous game and calls for the trainer. Now, the odds from 1.25 has jumped to 1.4 simply for the injury reason. How do you deal with this?
Ok first of all let’s look into Betfair rules here. Basically, as long as the first set is over, regardless of whatever happens from then on, whoever goes into the next round is deemed the winner. Personally I am not a fan of this rule as it definitely increases the possibilities of Match Fixing and Fraud. This also means you can get incredibly lucky or unlucky! Any player deemed as winner before the end of the first set means our trades are voided!
So here’s what you should do when you come across an injury.
Wait for the injured player to see how he plays his first point, specifically on his movement in rallies!
So putting this to our example. Rafa is serving for the first set at 5-4 and we wait for Rafa to serve and come across the following scenarios.
Scenario 1: He got to 0-15 and his movement is looking very dodgy!
Trade out immediately! This means regardless of whether you are in a profit or loss, you must trade out! Never wait for the market to keep going against you, as it likely will, in such a case.
Here are a few examples of MARKET MOVEMENTS against Rafa.
We’ve Backed @1.8 (from initial tip) for 100 units to win 80 at the start of the match.
1. Market movement towards Rafa:
Rafa dominating at the start meant odds went to 1.25.
You have a chance here to trade out with about 40 units.
Here’s how: Back 100@ 1.8, Lay 144 @1.25 (Liability of 36 units) =44 units precisely
You’ve ignored doing it for reasons that Rafa looked far better.
2. Market moving away from Rafa:
The knowledge of the injury has been reflected immediately on the market and traders have started laying him and the odds have jumped to 1.4 from 1.25.
However you still are in profit and choose to wait. Again a chance to trade out with profits as shown below:
Back 100@ 1.8, lay 129@ 1.4 (Liability of 51 units) = 29 units approx..
3. Market moving further away :
You’ve ignored trading out from both the above movements in the market, and now it has reached 1.6 from 1.4 after Rafa is 0-15 down, but this time, he physically doesn’t look good!
Trading out at 1.6 will obviously still give you a profit as shown below:
Back 100 @1.8, lay 112 @1.6 (liability of 67 units) = 12 units approx..
This is a real sign that you’ve to trade out as you’ve already missed two chances to profit out a decent amount and there is no further reason why you should leave it open.
The following scenarios further explains other cases where you should consider trading out. But from the above market fluctuations,we can see that we are losing our profits considerably fast and hence decisions has to be made quickly!
Scenario 2: He got to 15-0 after a long rally but his movement is looking dodgy still!
Wait for the score to be 15-30. If it does go to 15-30 trade out!
Scenario 3: He has got to 40-0 but the score is now back to deuce after some poor shots.
Consider trading out.
Scenario 4: Rafa has won the set, just barely and is taking a full medical time out!
Leave the trade open if its low stakes, and wait for the first service game of Rafa in the second to decide whether to let the trade go on.
For high stakes, trade out just enough to keep Rafa in minimal loss just in case he wins the second easily.
Here’s an example how to do this if the odds have gone to 2 from our initial odds of 1.8. Obviously we are in loss as we can see why, from the following facts:
1. Initially Backed 100 @1.8,
2. Missed to profit out @1.25
3. Missed to profit out @1.4
4. Missed to profit out @1.6
5. Rafa has won the set but injury looks very concerning and odds have gone to 2 even after winning the first set
Strategy: Lay Rafa for 75 @2.
This means, if Rafa loses, we are going to lose 25 units (Murray has to win the next two sets).
If he wins, we will win 5 units, a very unfortunate situation considering the fact we could have profited out up to to 44 units at one point early in the match!
Here, we have left out the idea of profiting anything big from Rafa now, as the market has moved against us. But we have put a loss % of 25 units in case the worst happens. This is less than 15% of our normal loss limit, that would normally be 40% in the case of BH. This is because, these events unfolded as a result of injury which is entirely different from normal market movements.
In principle, we have changed our strategy from chasing money to saving money, a very calculated way to deal with the situation!
I cannot stress how important this way of adjusting to the market is, few do it as the mind tells you to wait. The traders who adjust here are the real traders who will consistently beat the markets!
As we can see again from the above scenarios, the market moves rapidly and there isn’t much time to think, hence whatever you do, make sure you have an exit strategy as I’ve mentioned in the market movements in relation to profiting out.
Injuries are the nemesis of all traders especially when you had been winning! Hence every single match is worth considering for the worst case scenario of injuries.
Remember, only let the trade run if they are still looking dominant on the main stats such as serve percentages and mainly rallies without any injury concerns! If the stats have gone in the opposite direction, you should definitely consider quitting the market!
One of the most important points of this article is that markets move very fast and hence you should react accordingly with your exit strategies. If you don’t spot the hints, you are likely to be left behind in the Red Zone!!
Thanks for reading!