Pinnacle Trading Tip: Agut v Coric & Post Match Analysis

TODAY’S PINNACLE TIP AS FOLLOWS:

MATCH:  AGUT (SPAIN) VS CORIC (CROATIA)

EVENT:          ATP CHENNAI

START TIME: 14:30 UK TIME

TIP:  BACK AGUT @1.45, LAY @1.11

STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED

STAKE SUGGESTED: 4% TOTAL (3% TO BE USED @ THE START)

DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

GENERAL FORM:

Coric’s start to 2015 was quite slow but he found some form in February when he beat Andy Murray in Dubai with a 6-1 6-3 scoreline. Much was expected of the Croat for the latter part of the season. However, he didn’t quite show the consistency and faded away.

Agut, on the other hand, started slowly but got more and more consistent towards the end of the year, especially on Hard Courts. One match that is worth a mention is his US Open encounter against Novak Djokovic, where he troubled the World No. 1, who eventually beat him in 4 sets.
Overall, I must say that Agut is continuing to perform well on hard courts.

PLAYER ANALYSIS:

Neither player has a great serve to win easy points but both are good defensively. While Coric is a much more aggressive player in rallies, Agut is happy to run around to prolong the points, essentially working out his opponents.

With current form and a better defensive game plan in his arsenal, I feel Agut is likely to win this match quite comfortably.

GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:

Coric had a pretty tough match against Granollers-Pujol in the first round and has generally not looked his best on these courts in India. On the other hand, Agut beat a very decent player in John Millman quite comfortably in his earlier match. Also, worth noting that the Spaniard has won both the matches against Coric without losing a set.

Even though a deciding set can’t be fully ignored, I would expect Agut to dominate this match from start to finish.

TRADING STRATEGY:

Primary scenario:

Simply put, I cannot see Agut losing today against Coric.
Invest 3% of your bank by backing Agut at the starting price and laying @1.11.

Delaying the trade for fetching better prices is NOT recommended as the Spaniard is good enough to motor along in the first set.

Your potential profit is around 31% of your investment.

Worst case scenario:

I can’t see Agut losing unless he picks up an injury here.

However, if Coric starts strongly and goes on to win the first set, invest your remaining 1% on Agut by backing him at odds of 2. A comeback win is always on the cards, if indeed this scenario unfolds.

As always, any profits between 20-25% is always good to green out!

Good Luck for our first Pinnacle tip for 2016!

ANALYSIS

It looked like we were going to get unlucky in this trade as Agut dominated early on and we missed the target by a couple of ticks in the first set.

What followed was a much better display by Coric and a lot of inconsistency from Agut as he went on to lose the 2nd set and was down a break in the 3rd.

However, the Spaniard came back strongly to break Coric twice and served for the match. At this point our target was hit making the trade successful.

Strangely, Agut got broken again and lost this marathon match on a tie break.

Following is the market movement on Coric which hit above 12 at one stage.

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Patrick