Djokovic vs Murray:
This could be the best match in the tournament in relation to the
quality of tennis. Both heavy hitting players, extremely aggressive, greatly defensive and powerful serves, this one will be a cracker of a match!
Strategy: This Match will go in Murray’s favour for me at some point in the match. It is likely that may happen straight away as Murray aced Federer 21 times last time. If he serves like that Djokovic will have problems. Hence laying djokovic and leaving it at that could be the safer option atleast till his odds go above 2.
Application: Lay djokovic heavy at the start for 200 at 1.58
(liability 116), back him at 2 for 156 units . Profit guaranteed is
around 44 units approximately.
For me the above is very likely to happen.
Scalping: If you are scalping, there should be plenty of opportunities. Murray is the
better returner eventhough djokovic is great too.
I am going to give the edge to Murray that he will hold his service games easier than
djokovic. Hence everytime djokovic serves, lay his price.
I am again not 100% confident on the final outcome of this match. This
could be another 5 setter and probably djokovic stealing it in the
5th. As the match goes on, I feel djokovic will have the edge. Murray
for me will start better just like he did against federer which would
be vital for him if he is to win this grand slam!
Congrats again to all those who listened to me for the Li Na
strategies. I wasn’t just right for just one, but all of the 3
strategies would have worked for the simple reason that Li Na won the
first set rather comfortably which was what I expected.
I predicted Li to win in a possible 3 setter but she had twice twisted
her ankle which completely changed the momentum of the match. I rather
felt bad for her as for me she was the superior player till the
injury! Eitherways, regardless of the final outcome, trading wise,
simply listening to my strategies, you should have made easy money
Good luck for the finale!
More info on Tennis Trading League Strategies.
Thanks again for a really good tradingtip.
I layed Djoko from start and green out after first set 🙂
But I have to ask if Djoko had won the first set what to do then? Trade out for a loss?
Congrats everyone who followed on my tip to lay djokovic first. It
could have been a close one, but Murray won the first set and you
should have traded out a decent profit there!
Please feel free to put your comments as I am always interested in how
things worked out for you guys!
First of all thanks for your question as I am always happy to answer them.
You ask what if Djokovic had won the first set.
In my strategy, I mentioned the following which I shall quote:
”Strategy: This Match will go in Murray’s favour for me at some point
in the match. It is likely that may happen straight away as Murray
aced Federer 21 times last time. ”
What I am predicting here is, the odds to go in murray’s favour at
sometime in the match. I go on to say that it likely will happen in
the first set more, which actually was not the case if you were
following the match, Murray had problems and gave breakpoints away
which Djokovic couldn’t convert. However he was on a different level
than djokovic in the tie break. Hence, your question is a very valid
Here is my strategy in the worst case scenarios.
If Djokovic had won the first set the odds would be in the 1.2 -1 25
range (as it was a tie break and not a 6-1 or 6-2 scoreline). One
strategy is to lay him there again, this time with double your initial
stake. The risk is more here of course but you have to acknowledge
Murray as the second best in the world at the moment hence the above
If however, djokovic further wins the second tie break as well, the
odds will go to under 1.1 likely. In this situation you have 2
methods, Either trade out completely or lay djokovic about 4 times
more as the lay price is much smaller. There are risks involved here
obviously when you are laying. But the right strategy is inclined
towards the initial gut feeling that murray will fight back. I
personally would lay that 1.1 hence. Like I said Murray is NOT JUST a
top 10 player, he’s a top 3 player, and has been superior to djokovic
so far till this match started. Djokovic could have lost to Wawrinka
in the quarters which would have been a great shock and Wawrinka
honestly would have deserved that. But Murray had never looked
troubled throughout this tournament including federer where his odds
never went above 2.2 I believe! That is a very commanding statement
which you can use for your trading.
If however, you saw that djokovic winning the first set with murray
having any injury issues (which eventually he did with nasty blisters
on his feet), you simply have to trade them out, no thinking, just
trade out! All these situations arises fast so the best trader is
always who watches every bit of the tournament to see whats going on.
You should also have a commentary page either from bbc.co.uk/sports or
tennisearth.com which I personally use to see if you have missed
anything while you were away, maybe for a loo break.
Moving on, if djokovic goes on to make a break in the third set at the
start, the odds will go to 1.03 or 1.04. I personally would lay there
again. There is a huge risk, if you are keeping on laying, but, that’s
why tennis trading is about making huge money from small stakes.
Personally I wouldn’t mind laying a rather huge amount lets say for
500 quid (liability of 20) at 1.04. The hope here is if there is any
break for murray, odds will jump to 1.1 and even move towards 1.15 -16
range (which itself maybe enough to recover 50-75% of your losses).
That is because its a best of 5 setter. There are players out there
who are willing to give up the first two sets cheaply and then squeeze
out every bit of energy of the opponent winning by a huge margin by
the time its the 5th set. I am not saying Murray was giving up the
first 2, obviously not, but you have to give him some credit as he’s
simply one of the best defensive players in the game. There is always
a chance for him to fight back, so that point should be considered
seriously. But of course, as I mentioned, any clue of injury always
trade out the player you have to if your in a loss!
The safest strategy however would be the following:
djokovic wins the first set, odds gone down to 1.2 –> Trade out
completely but lay at 1.2 just enough to be green on the Murray side
and then wait out the second set completely!
That is the safest option as it would be managing your capital
properly and seeing if things get from bad to worse or things will go
in ur direction. If it goes in your direction, your loss will be going
lower as you have laid at 1.2 already just to be in the green!
If it comes to a situation where everytime you are laying djokovic,
murray is playing bad, and everytime you are not doing anything murray
is playing good, simply wait out for a better time in the match. Don’t
panic as this situation is common for all trading markets, including
the world’s biggest financial market of FOREX and also stock markets.
That is why trading overall is completely different from betting or
gambling! Your intuition is always your best friend and can be easily
your worst enemy. The best advice I can always give is when you come
to trade a match, be in a very calm and accepting mood, also you
should be able to accept a certain amount of loss at the start.
Panicking doesnt help. I’ve been there before and experience has told
me, its the patience that made me win more!
I hope my lengthy answer gave you a better understanding. Please feel
free to ask more questions.
Absolutly thanks for answering my questions I appriciate it alot. And so nice to know that you always will answer them. Looking forward to start using your strategies on upcoming tournaments.
After reading your detailed reply I realize that I didn’t do anything wrong at the beginning, but lost due to the later stages of my betting.
I layed Djokovic at the beginning and also during a few points when Murray was struggling to hold serve in the first set, but once I saw the set was going into the tiebreaker I managed to green up ever so slightly, basically start fresh. I thought there was no reason to risk the stake going into the tiebreaker, as in my view Djokovic was a slight favorite. After Murray won the first set I layed Djokovic again and after Djokovic won the second set I greened up and when I saw Murray falling behind in the third I backed him. That was a big mistake.
I didn’t give much thought to the injury, as Murray is known to exaggerate things, (like that match at the French against Jarkko Nieminen when it looked like he was about to quit) I actually though the blister would make him play more aggressive because he was definitely not playing aggressive enough to win.
I continued to back Murray even after he lost the third set, as I was expecting him to at least once break serve in the fourth. He is one of the best returners on the tour for crying out loud. Yet he continued to dwindle and I decided to just wait and see if Novak will be able to serve it out, at that point 1.01 was not going to get much money back for me, I waited too long!
The final was far from what I expected, Murray was very disappointing, serving poorly, returning timidly and in general not playing aggressively enough to win.
Was my mistake backing Murray after he got behind in the third set, he was trading around 2.4 to 2.6, would you back him in hopes of a service break to shift the money to Djokovic and leave it there? I continued to make small bets on Murray as the odds continued to drift, just hoping he would try to go for more shorts on his return games and I can at least break even. I was just waiting for this opportunity, and there were some very close instances, but it never came.
I have been playing tennis competitively my entire life and following it on TV, so I know the game well, but I am new to trading and don’t have the feel for the market yet. Trading in small stakes, but today got over-eager and lost my bank!
Thanks for your comment.
I completely understand how you feel losing in the Murray match where
instead you should have traded out a profit. While you cannot be
blamed for waiting some more time to see if Murray can go on winning
since he won the first set, you cannot ignore the fact that once there
was an injury concern it was a risky business. Hence obviously the
right choice was to trade out or back djokovic there.
At no point in tennis can you take an injury lightly. Imagine the
millions of pounds lost to bookies in the serena vs stephens match. I
can bet there must have been a ton of money lost there!!
However experience is the best teacher so I hope next time such a
situation arises you will rectify it. Indeed, I do remember the Murray
– Nieminen match you pointed out. I believe, former grand slam winner
Virginia Wade called Murray a ‘drama queen’ that day and she was right
as that was the best oscar award winning performance on a tennis court
I had seen in a long time. But obviously Djokovic is no Nieminen so
you should have given him more credit there ;). But hey, we all make
mistakes so I wish you good luck in your future trades mate!
Also love tennis .