Pinnacle Trading Tip: Burgos V Bellucci & Analysis

MATCH:  ESTRELLA BURGOS (DOMINICAN REP) VS BELLUCCI (BRAZIL)

EVENT:          ATP QUITO FINAL – CLAY

START TIME: 18:00 UK TIME

TIP: LAY BELLUCCI @1.57, BACK 2.2

STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED

STAKE SUGGESTED: 3% TOTAL (2% TO BE USED @ THE START)

DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED

FORM AND GAME COMPARISON:

Estrella’s form is quite decent winning 6 of his last 7 matches on clay courts.
This is the first clay court participation for Bellucci and so far he has played quite well beating 3 very tricky players, Montanes, Busta and Lorenzi.

Game wise, both are very attacking players who prefer Clay to other surfaces. While Bellucci has the serve to get him out of trouble, consistency can be an issue for him. Estrella meanwhile, has served delightfully, knocking out solid clay courters like Pella and Ramos in 2 sets!

Worth noting that the Dominican is also the defending champ at Quito and beat Bellucci in the same tournament last year at the semi-finals in 2 sets.

GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:

In general, I am expecting a tough match for Bellucci who has shown signs of inconsistency in his previous 2 matches.
I believe if Estrella can serve as well as he has done so far, this could possible end in 2 sets. However, I’m more inclined to go for the Dominican to win in 3!

TRADING STRATEGY:

Primary scenario:

My gut instinct is for Estrella to continue his serve consistency and momentum to defend his title here at Quito, Ecuador.
The stat that could matter the most is that the Dominican has lost just one set in the entire tournament which was a 2nd set tie-breaker against the Argentinian Renzo Olivo.

On the contrary Bellucci, needed 3 sets to win both his previous 2 matches against Carreno-Busta and Lorenzi. In fact, in the last match, the Brazilian had to come from a set down to win.

These facts makes me feel Estrella has a serious chance in defending his title, contrary to what bookies think!

Therefore, I’m suggesting to LAY Bellucci at the start with 2% stake. Considering Estrella’s serve being so good, I don’t recommend delaying this trade to fetch better LAY prices on the Brazilian.

Your potential profit is around 50% of your stake.

Worst case scenario:

No doubt Bellucci is a very decent and experienced clay courter. If he starts well in this match, I recommend backing Estrella at odds of 5 with your remaining 1% stake.

As always, any profits from 20% up is good to trade out!
ANALYSIS

This was one high quality match especially in the serving department as there was just one break of serve in the entire first two sets which went to Bellucci late in the first set.

Odds on Burgos shot up to our target of 6 odds (for the ‘worst case scenario’) and he had more trouble in the 2nd set. However, what kept him in the match was his serving which was what I hoped for. After getting a crucial mini-break in the tie-breaker, the Dominican finished off the second set to force a decider.

Amazingly, the 3rd set was such a one-sided affair that Burgos ended up winning 6-2 and defended his title at Quito, quite masterfully.

A tough match for both players but Estrella just had enough energy to weather the storm from the Brazilian and once he did, this was going totally in favour of the Dominican.

We would have accumulated profits by the end of the 2nd set but since there was no suggestion to trade out the market in the 3rd, I expect you made some very good profits here!

Estrella’s price movements shown below: