This probably is one of the most important articles that I’ve wrote so far!
First of all, before you take my tips, ask the question as to what is your TARGET FOR TODAY. Have you got a target at all?
E.g., if my bankroll is around 100, I would go for a 10/20 unit target and that’s my only priority.
While it is possible that I may make much more, that 10/20 is what I am after and that’s my mission! So for me, that’s the key to winning.
You will find hundreds of people coming to you saying they won 200 or 300 on this match and they had predicted this and that to happen and all went according to plan and claiming they are great traders! Let me assure you, that’s not the case. The great ones are those who consistently make money, every single day. It doesn’t matter how much they are winning, AS LONG AS THEY ARE WINNING! What you don’t hear from our fellow boastful ‘GREAT’ trader is about his losses. No one wants to accept or admit when they have made mistakes. That’s a surety. His 200 or even 2000 unit profit means nothing to me, if he has lost 1000 the next day. Because, it says, sooner or later, he’s going downhill!
To put it simply, SET A TARGET for each day!
Now that you’ve done that, approach my tips with a calm mind.
Remember, I am not putting my house on every single tip I give. Also, if you do not have time to trade every single market, DONT! There is no problem at all in not using all the tips. In fact, if you have achieved your target for the day, I think its perfectly alright if you don’t continue with the tips till the next day.
I suggest people to go after the BH tips more. You don’t have to BACK HEAVY all the time. You can do it with smaller stakes.
The reason I give tips, especially the Back Heavy, is due to constant monitoring of matches of particular players, trying to find out their weaknesses, their strengths, their serves etc. So far, though, I’m happy to say BH has been very very successful.
Now that you’ve set a target and found a few BH tips for trading,
what I suggest to do is delay the trade for at least 2/3 games, especially when using very big stakes, or Back Heavy stakes. This is not mandatory – the choice is yours – as indeed there is a chance of a favourite winning straight from the start and you may have missed the good odds completely. But, it is worth considering, as it gives you a feel for the game to see how your player is doing, for example, if he is showing the same form as the previous day, are his serves doing damage? Is your opponent returning well? All these questions matter, and mistakes can be avoided if you get an understanding of the players at the start by just delaying trading. When calculating whether a tip is successful or not, I will always call a tip successful if delaying trading would have made it successful.
If you don’t want to delay too much, you can consider putting a reasonably lower stake on the tip I give, something that doesn’t affect your bankroll too much. It’s more of an experimental stake to see how the market is reacting. I do it with few units sometimes and it’s a good strategy that you can apply. Remember these are just tips to get used to the market before you go big. The whole point of delaying is about being PATIENT!
After this, its all about entering the trade at a reasonable price. There is no point at entering a trade at a very low price. For example if the tip was [email protected], I don’t see the logic of entering a trade @1.2. Also this poses more risk. However if the tip was back @1.8 and you get the price around 1.65, that’s more reasonable, even though you are getting lesser odds. Also it’s more probable that you may get better odds generally when you delay. From experience, that’s often the case, especially when there’s no huge favourite in the match!
After getting the price, choose a laying price that you find is worth getting some money off. Generally I give a 15-30 decimal price difference. Hence if I’m giving, let’s say [email protected], lay @1.75, and if you got the price @2, it is perfectly fine if you trade out early @1.8! This makes you adapt to the market and are the stepping stones in dealing with prices and improves your trading experience. Every market is different and should be handled differently. Hence sometimes going against my tip can be considered! There is no Nostradamus for Betfair, but if there is I’d like to meet him! Just stick to meaningful plans and you will see that money come in.
SHOULD MY BACK AND LAY BETS BE FOR THE SAME AMOUNT?
I’ve got a number of mails from visitors and members recently who’ve directed their question to ‘stake sizing’.
In this article I shall give a brief summary of how I personally would stake for myself with a bankroll of 1000 units.
As always, it is very important to enter the market at the right price. Hence, the right strategy most of the time is to delay the trades.
For this article, I am going to choose one of the LAY HEAVY tips I gave today (June 28th ) as an example.
The tip was as follows:
LAY HEAVY ON PENNETTA @1.92, [email protected] 2.2 (against CORNET)
I personally would have considered 30% of my bank (300 units for this example) as the potential risk here.
This would mean my potential win would be 326 for risking around 300.
Calculation as follows:
Laid Pennetta @1.92 for 326 , Liability of 299.92 precisely
The Back price of this tip was @2.2 (28 decimals away)
Now in order to guarantee yourself a profit, the first thing you should remember is that your stake has to be less than 326 when you are backing @2.2! If the back stake is exactly same as your lay stake, you will have no profit or loss on the other side (in this case, if Pennetta wins, which was what eventually happened!!). If the stake is more than 326 on the back side it means you are losing if Penneta wins. So the moral of the story is, if you are laying STAKE X at a price, you should be backing less than Stake X on a bigger price to guarantee yourself GREEN. This is simply a must. The principle is the same in other forms of trading whether it is FX or Stocks.
Hence, in relation to our tip, the maximum profit achievable is around 41 units by backing 2.2 with a stake of 285 units.
Laid [email protected] for 326 units , If Pennetta loses, our loss is 299.92, if she wins, profit is 326
Backed Pennetta @2.2 for 285, If Pennetta wins our profit is 342, if she loses we lose 285
Overall profit if Pennetta Wins = 342 – 299.92 = 42. 08, if she loses = 326 – 285 = 41 units
Let’s now look at the difference if we laid and backed the same stake of 326!
Laid [email protected] for 326, If Pennetta loses, we lose 299.92, if she wins , profit is 326
Backed [email protected] for 326, If Pennetta wins, we win 391.20, if loses, we lose 326
Overall profit if Pennetta Wins = 391.20 – 299.92 = 91.28, If Loses = 326 – 326 = 0 !!
As we can see from the above example, if in the worst case scenario Pennetta fights back to win, exactly what happened today, our 2-3 hour worth of trading gave us 0 profit and loss. Hence, what you should always consider is guaranteeing a profit.
Indeed the 91 profit looks sweet, but you should always lay some of that 91 to not worry about nasty surprises as that’s what trading is all about. Many times in my amateur days of trading, I have been in situations where the losing player catches form all of a sudden and has destroyed my trades in a matter of minutes, usually in fluctuating tie-breaks. While I can consider that comeback a bit unlucky, I do not deserve any sympathy for not acting when I had the chance!
You can always play with the stakes whether you are trading with Betfair website or on a platform to see where you are at. Experiment this with the trading buttons on the platform. As time goes on, some of these numbers will automatically stick in your mind which will prove very vital during key situations.
The moral of the story is – ‘ALWAYS GREEN OUT WITH A GUARANTEED PROFIT’ by adjusting the stakes accordingly!!
By the way, we beat the market rather easily in this particular match as Cornet blew away Pennetta by 6-0 in the first set which was all what we were after.
Once you have done all of the above with a plan and a target set for each day, I guarantee you there will be more greens in your account. What this whole etiquette does is to make you a better and patient trader. There is one final story to this article and that is ‘trading out’. It is probably the most important secret to being a good trader. If there is a wild fluctuating market and you can’t figure out which way the market is going, and that you have had a chance just to green out a small profit, don’t think, just trade that out! The saying ‘Little Drops Make A Mighty Ocean’ is so relevant to trading and should be always on one’s mind!
Also, never worry about trading out in a loss situation. People have this inclination towards a particular thing to happen when things go against them and they choose to wait. While waiting is alright, it is strictly not advised if your bankroll is decreasing at a rapid rate. Again, the best traders are those that trade out earlier than later!
If you follow or at least consider every single tip I’ve mentioned above before trading each day, I guarantee that you will be a successful Tennis Trader on Betfair who can consistently beat markets.
Thanks for reading!