Recently, I had a comment from a member who quoted ‘I had traded out a loss, but then my player started winning’. He further went on saying ‘I might as well let the trade run next time‘!
Obviously my answer to him was a lengthy speech about trading out. For those of you who haven’t read the article which describes wild movements in markets, please have a look at the article titled ‘Wild Fluctuating Markets‘ as it is very informative to Tennis Trading on Betfair.
Now to further answer this question; is there a time when you can indeed let the trade run as your player seems to have a constant edge even when he is losing a few points here and there, throughout the match. Is it worth considering?
My first answer, or rather, question, to you would be ‘can you afford the loss’? If you can, I’d say go for it! If you can’t afford it and want to vacuum every penny on the Betfair Exchange, then don’t!
Of course there are a few buts. The biggest question is, does the other player have any injury concern. If so, it might well be worth leaving the trade on. But still you have to consider the worst case scenario.
The second point would be the odds at which you backed. Was it a huge favourite who is almost unbeatable in the current form? And he has lost his first service game and you don’t want to trade out even if the other player takes a 3-0 lead! And the odds have jumped from 1.1 to 1.5!? In such a case, it maybe worth waiting. My experience has told me that the majority of huge favourites, even after they lose a few games, have a period in the match where they turn to extra gears in the span of minutes and completely change the match around. These are exceptional cases but not uncommon, and you seriously have to look into their present form, along with their present stats and pretty much be glued to the live stream. It may very well be the case that the odds may even go to 1.9 or 2 from a mere 1.1, but from then on, it never goes up but shoots down. This pattern is very teasing and hence a dangerous game to get into. This is why I generally do not advise backing heavy on low stake matches, as there may be unwanted pressures arising from such matches which is not about trading but more linked to gambling.
If I am in this situation, and the ‘favourite fighting back’ option would be present, I would have to opt for ‘trading out’ as the risks are unwanted. I would leave it open until 1.5 or 1.6 maximum after which I would say ‘why the hell did I back it at so low odds!’, swear some more at myself, but most importantly, still quit the market!
The main exception for not trading out would be when you have backed on something very low with low stakes. You might as well let the trade run till the odds become a huge outsider, (for e.g. from 1.1 to 3), which doesn’t happen straight away. Again this depends on if you can afford to lose the stake.
The most dangerous ‘no-no’ is when you let the trade run and your player gets injured. You simply have to trade out the market. No questions asked!
Thanks for reading !