Tennis Trading Advice: Heavy Favourite in the Red Zone!

The main reason for writing this article was due to a tip I gave on Serena to beat Sharapova some time back.

Serena won the match but only after losing the set and coming from a break in the second set.

Let’s assume that Serena’s odds were 1.4 on Betfair and you have backed 100 units on her.

The loss limit is activated @ the price of 2.34 for Serena.


Backed 100@1.4 on Serena , Laid Serena for 60 @2.34

Stake difference 100 – 60 = 40 units (in loss)

This is the normal scenario and would mean that the market has been completely traded out. It is alright to do this and this would mean you have lost 40 already. However, since my tip was a very highly confident tip, one option is to wait, hoping to back Serena at a high price. Indeed, in the match it did go to 4 at one stage. So anything from 3 onwards, you should give the odds in advance. E.g. back 20 units @3 on Serena should be planned up front. This means you have taken a much higher odds now, meaning, your maximum loss would be 40 + 20 = 60 and your profit if any would be 60 – 40 (from loss limit) = 20.

This is a perfectly alright way of trading. The only thing I would advice here is to give the Back odds in advance.

Another way of dealing with the odds hitting our loss limit price is, to not completely trade out the market. This would of course mean, the loss will be more if Serena loses but if the price dips below after hitting the loss limit then we are still in some sort of profit.

I generally advice it only for either low stake matches or highly probable tips. However, always use it with caution!

The plan here is to trade out just enough to keep Serena side in minimal loss. So in this case, after Backing 100@1.4, if the price goes to around our loss limit of 2.34, I Lay there for 26 units.


Backed 100@1.4, possible profit = 40

Laid 26@2.34, possible loss = 35 approximately

Stake difference here is 100-26 = 74 units which would be our loss, possible profit would be 40 – 35 = approximately 5 units

The idea here is, if the market is fluctuating wildly, this sort of strategy can more likely come to our aid, as our money is mostly on the favourite. Hence, you can trade out at  a better price if needed, if things get worse.

Please note again, this is not advised for the majority of matches and there has to be SOLID reasons for using it when Tennis Trading on Betfair.

This strategy may also come in handy when you are trading heavy favourites!

For example, you have put 1000 units on Rafa @1.1 to profit 100 against Garcia Lopez (Purely an example as I do not advice high staking on very low odds)

Unfortunately Rafa starts very poorly and loses the set 6-2. But his odds have jumped to only 1.45. Using this strategy for 1.45 implies, laying Rafa for 200 units @1.45, which would mean if he loses, you are losing 800 units, if he wins, you are winning 10 units. The idea here is to keep Rafa’s side with minimal loss. 1.45 is still a big favourite and it is more likely that odds may go down.


Backed 1000@1.1 to profit 100 units

Laid 200@1.45 to lose 90 units.

Stake difference = 800 units

Profit difference = 10 units.

Please note, I do not advise backing heavy on favourites less than 1.1 at any time no matter how guaranteed that profit may seem. The reason being possible injury. You can never predict that and its wise not to back huge favourites with high stakes most of the time!

Thanks for reading!


1 Comment

  • Daniel Posted February 19, 2014 1:59 pm

    1.3 or 1.4 I think a very low to support, let alone 1.1. I remember this game from Serena. Really worth oppose Sharapova in the second set after it has a set and a break lead, and with enough game yet.

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