1. Roger Vasselin vs Ito:
This could be a great trading market I feel. Ito is not at all an easy
player to beat and along with Nishikori is one of Japan’s best
prospects at the moment. Vasselin should grab more encouragement from
the home advantage but I feel laying him at 1.3 is good at the start. Strategy: Lay heavy on Roger Vasselin at 1.3 for around 200 units
(Liab: 60). Back him at 1.6 for 162 units. Approximate profit around 38 units.
2. Ungur vs Benneteau: Benneteau always plays good at home and is a very tough player to beat! His odds of 1.07 as back price pretty much says he will walk away this match. Hence apply the back heavy and lay very low strategy (1.02)
3. Llodra vs Kenny de Schepper:
Back odds are surprisingly 1.44 on Llodra. Unless there is an injury I
dont see why that is at such a high price. For me it should be in the
1.2 range. I predict this as HOT FREE MONEY!
Back heavy here even 500 units is fine. That odds should go down!
Lay at 1.15 – 1.2 range. I expect a guaranteed profit.
If however there is an injury to Llodra, maybewait for one or two of
his service games to see how he is playing.
As an EXTRA TIP: I am going to put Llodra as the best outsider to win
this outright market for this tournament. If you get around 30 – 40
odds on betfair take it as that price will go down!
4. Paire vs Darcis:
Paire odds similar to Llodra at 1.45. I think this is also a good one
to back. Do not back heavy though. Darcis is no newbie to tennis. Back
around 50 at 1.45 and lay at around 1.25. Paire has been overall one
of the most improved players in the ATP circuit in the last couple of
years. Hence I predict a victory for him!
Youzhny vs Sijsling:
I honestly don’t know a lot of Sijsling as I haven’t seen many matches
of him eventhough I have kept track of his score. The odds on Youzhny
are at 1.56. That says this is going to be a tight match. I wonder if
this is a market manipulation. Hence for me expect Youzhny to go
through maybe in a possible 3 setter.
I still expect Youzhny odds to fall at some stage. Maybe the best
method is to wait for the first set. If Youzhny wins it, laying him
won’t be a bad idea as well!
I am very much looking for my favourite player Rafa Nadal to storm the
clay court this season!
His outright market is 1.45 on betfair and that maybe absolute free
money as the closest opponent he has as a rival is Juan Monaco. I dont
think Monaco has it in him to beat Rafa.
Hence take that as a tip firstly.
Moving on to the matches:
1. Naso vs Lorenzi:
Lorenzi is a clay court specialist. His odds of 1.68 I expect to fall
soon. Back heavy and lay at 1.4 to be in green zone.
2. Monaco vs Rufin:
FREE MONEY on Monaco for me. 1.24 looks too big odds actually. Hence
back him heavy and lay at 1.1.
3. Berlocq vs Giraldo:
This could be the best trading match for today! Both great clay court
players. I expect a tightly fought contest with Giraldo winning it!
Berlocq is a rather favourite here at 1.55 on betfair. Again I don’t
understand it. Giraldo is not at all an easy player to tackle on clay.
I would hence go for laying Berlocq heavy at the start and backing him
at 2 for profits!
4. Nadal vs Del Bonis:
Del Bonis beat one of the best outsiders in mens tennis yesterday, Guido Pella.
Odds are 1.04 on Nadal and that pretty much looks easy money. Nadal
may indeed win easily and maybe thrash Del Bo here. But let me say
something, everyone will be watching how Nadal plays in this match,
including bookies to see how to price the French Open Outright Market.
If he doesn’t look good, he may not even be the favourite at the
Rolland Garros. I still expect Rafa to win easily!
Cheers lads and good luck!