PINNACLE TIP #14
MATCH: HYEON CHUNG (SOUTH KOREA) V MARIN CILIC (CROATIA)
EVENT: ATP SHENZHEN
START TIME: 11:00 UK TIME
TIP: LAY CILIC @1.54, BACK @2.2
STOP LOSS: NOT SUGGESTED
STAKE SUGGESTED: 2% TOTAL (1% TO BE USED @ THE START)
DELAY AND TRADE : NOT SUGGESTED
PLAYER COMPARISON & ANALYSIS:
No doubt that former US Open Champ Marin Cilic has a huge amount of experience on hard courts. But on current form, Hyeon Chung not only looks like causing an upset, but could very well be a decent bet for the Outright market at Shenzhen, China.
One key stat to back up my tip on Chung today is his loss at the US Open to Wawrinka. On paper, he was a huge underdog, yet the final scoreline read 7-6 7-6 7-6 to the Swiss. That just shows that this guy can hang around against tough players in major tournaments and could therefore be one of the best prospects from Asia in the coming years.
While Cilic has aggression in his game, his serve offers some opportunity. Chung meanwhile is a South Korean version of Kei Nishikori and has enough power and aggression to win a lot of quick points.
This could very well end up being a rather tough match for Cilic in my opinion.
GENERAL UNFOLDING SCENARIO:
Chung’s last game was a thorough demolition job against a very decent Bedene of Britain. The scoreline read 6-2 6-0.
On the other hand Cilic had a tough 3 set challenge against John Millman.
For my money, even if Cilic ends up winning here, he is likely to have a tough match from the very beginning.
Personally a 3 set win for either player looks good but I wouldn’t be too surprised if Chung wins in straight sets.
My main prediction here is Cilic serves to lack venom in general as Chung is an exceptional returner. This implies the underdog will probably have a few opportunities to break. If he converts one, we could end up fetching some quick profits in this exciting encounter.
I suggest laying the Croatian at 1.54 and backing him @ 2.2. The reason for backing at such a high lay price is because if the first break is to Chung, the odds are very likely to swing in his favour early on as Cilic isn’t a heavy favourite here.
Our potential profit for a unit stake is close to 56% which is a pretty healthy return. I suggest trading out the market at this stage.
Worst case scenario:
Unlike other worst case scenarios, we should back Chung at a huge price if he ends up losing the first set easily. My suggestion is to go for an odds of at least 9.00 with your remaining stake of 1%.
Simply put, a comeback win for Chung is definitely on the cards today!
Trade out once he has won the second set. If the momentum looks definitely in Chung’s favour, you can choose to recycle some of the profits and trade in the 3rd set. As always, make sure you have at least 20-25% profit before you enter the deciding set!
POST MATCH ANALYSIS
This was my 5th LAY tip for the Pinnacle service.
On paper Cilic was always going to be a favourite so this was not the easiest of tips to win. However, as I had predicted, Cilic’s serves didn’t have enough sting early on.
He started with a 0-30 score in his 1st service game and escaped. Another bad start in his next service game gifted Chung a few break points and the underdog converted one.
The South Korean went on to hold his service to love to lead 3-1. We hit our target at this stage. This was exactly what I was hoping for at the beginning and I’m pleased things materialised in that manner.
Chung went on to lose the first set in a very tight tie-break. Had he held on his service games and won the first set, we could have seen an upset here.
Interesting to note that this was only our first tip where we won the trade and the player went on to lose the match.